![]() ![]() The fact that big coastal metros have been losing workers without a degree is not that surprising - living costs have surged in these places as the good big-city jobs once available to less educated workers in factories and clerical pools have dwindled. So to identify these patterns, The Upshot examined an anonymized sample of millions of census records and identified people who moved, grouped them by education level and age, and then linked each mover’s origin and destination with larger counties and metro areas. The census doesn’t publicly track moves between metro areas by demographic cohorts. Source: Upshot analysis of one-year American Community Survey microdata from .įor every move that anecdotally points to these trends - and the pandemic produced many such anecdotes - it’s trickier to capture these patterns nationwide. Now, large, expensive metros are shedding both kinds of workers.įigures are among Americans ages 21 to 64 who said they had moved in the prior 12 months. ![]() But among those large urban areas, the dozen metros with the highest living costs - nearly all of them coastal - have had a uniquely bifurcated migration pattern: As they saw net gains from college graduates, they lost large numbers of workers without degrees.Īt least, that was true until recently. And the analysis shows San Francisco, San Jose, Los Angeles and Washington all crossing a significant threshold: More college-educated workers left than moved in.įor most of this century, large metros with a million residents or more have received all of the net gains from college-educated workers migrating around the country, at the expense of smaller places. Seattle’s edge vanished during the pandemic. Boston’s pull with college graduates has weakened. But as the pool leaving grows faster, that educational advantage is eroding. Working-age Americans with a degree are still flowing into these regions from other parts of the country, often in large numbers. ![]()
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